|
Title:
|
|
De internationale verankering van het transitiebeleid voor energie
|
|
|
|
Author(s):
|
|
|
|
|
|
Published by:
|
Publication date:
|
|
ECN
Policy Studies
|
1-12-2005
|
|
|
|
ECN report number:
|
Document type:
|
|
ECN-C--05-012
|
ECN publication
|
|
|
|
Number of pages:
|
Full text:
|
|
31
|
Download PDF
|
Abstract:
The Netherlands has recently started a policy trajectory for energytransitions. Energy transi-tions are defined as long term, co-evolutionary
developments of technological and social sys-tems. Such transitions
are deemed necessary to move towards a sustainable energy system. So
far, the emphasis has been on national transition policy. Recent evaluations
have indicated the importance of embedding national efforts in a European
framework. The present study serves as a preparatory exploration of
doing so by constructing European energy transition scenarios that can
serve as a testing ground for Dutch energy innovations. The proposed
scenarios signal two potential bifurcation points on the global landscape
that could lead to completely different European energy regimes. One
bifurcation point concerns the future course of globalisation and the
consequences this may have for effective global climate change policies.
The other bifurcation point concerns the arrival of a crisis on world
energy markets. Depending on global devel-opments with respect to these
two issues Europe could end up in four different types of energy regimes.
The scenarios for these regimes are called Firewalled Europe (oil peak
arrives, climate change policies fail), Fossil Trade (oil peak avoided,
climate change policies fail), Sustainable Trade (oil peak arrives,
climate change policies succeed) and Fenceless Europe (oil peak avoided,
climate change policies succeed).
The final report for these scenarios is available as ?The next 50 years:
four European energy futures? (downloadable from www.ecn.nl/library/reports/2005/c05057.html).
Back to List