ECN publication
Mogelijkheden voor CO2-reductie in 2020
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-8-1998
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--98-041 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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The results of an outlook for the possibilities and consequences ofstrong CO2-reduction targets for the year 2020 are presented. Starting point for the study on the title subject was a total reduction of greenhouse gasses in 2020 compared to 1990 of 35%. Compared to the Global Competition (GC) scenario of the Long Term Outlooks 1995-2020 this means a necessary reduction of 95 Mton CO2. The possibilities for CO2-reduction have been determined by means of two variants. In the first variant the government is regarded as the main actor in dealing with the climate problem. Regulation and subsidies are the most important instruments in this variant, supported by a doubling of the regulating energy tax. In the second variant the climate problem is regarded as a problem of the complete society. The role of the government is limited to establishing the conditions under which the market is able to reach the necessary reduction in a cost effective way. Besides a quadrupling of the regulating energy tax in this variant, a system of emission reduction certificates is introduced. The outlooks show that this amount Of CO2-reduction can only be established by means of so called backstop technologies: e.g. import of biomass, CO2-disposal, and import of renewable electricity/nuclear energy. In both variants more than half of the necessary reduction is realized by these backstop technologies. In the variant with a many regulations the contribution of energy savings is higher, while in the other variant the role of backstop technologies is larger. The total costs of both variants vary between 6 and 10 billion Dutch guilders per year. Regarding the uncertainties of the potentials and costs of especially the backstop technologies the differences between both variants in costs are comparable. The division of costs between different sectors differs significantly between both variants. In the variant with many regulations the costs for the end-use sectors are nearly the same as in the GC scenario, while the budget of the government is almost the same as the total costs. In the variant with the reduction certificates the government receives a net income, while the end use sectors pay much more for their energy due to the quadrupling of the energy tax. 11 refs.

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