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Title:
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Trendanalyse luchtverontreiniging. De effecten van het werkprogramma Schoon en Zuinig op de uitstoot van luchtverontreinigende stoffen
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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6-6-2008
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-E--08-002
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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65
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
This report explores the effects of the Dutch Climate Programme ‘Clean and Efficient - Opportunities for Tomorrow’ on the emissions of air pollutants, as included in the National Emissions Ceilings. The starting point for the analysis is the ex ante evaluation of Clean and Efficient as published in September 2007.
On the national level, the relative effects on air pollutant emissions are invariably much smaller than those on domestic greenhouse gas emissions. With a 1% decrease in domestic greenhouse emissions, SO2 emission decrease between 0.3 and 0.5%, NOx emissions between 0.1 and 0.2%, NMVOC emissions decrease about 0.02 % and PM10 emissions decrease about 0.1%. Some general causes explain the differences between the effects on GHG emissions and NEC-emissions. Only part of both the NEC-emissions and the GHG-emissions is linked to energy use. Further, replacement of fossil fuels by biomass results in lower fossil CO2 emissions, but NEC-emissions remain roughly the same. Finally, emission factors of NEC-emissions vary strongly with energy carriers and processes, and reduction of energy use is unevenly divided among energy carriers and processes.
Specifically for the Netherlands, the role of electricity exports is important. Strong climate policies and high CO2 prices are likely to result in lower electricity demand, more renewable electricity generation and more cogeneration. However, they are likely to improve the international competitiveness of the Dutch electricity generation as well. As a result, electricity exports rise and part of the emission reductions materialize outside the Netherlands, rather than within its borders. In the case of GHG-emissions, burden sharing mechanisms and trade in emission right make sure that this is not a real problem. As comparable mechanisms for NEC-emissions do not exist, the GHG burden sharing and emission trading pose a risk for the attainment of Dutch NEC-targets.
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