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ECN publication
Scenarios for Western Europe on long term abatement of CO2 emissions
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1997
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--97-051 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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An energy model for Western Europe has been constructed based on theMARKAL (MARKet ALlocations) model to analyze future development of CO2 emissions from Western Europe and the possibilities to limit these emissions with technological measures. Two baseline scenarios for Western Europe are described for the period 1990 to 2050 which have clear differences in orientation of economic production and assumptions with respect to criteria for making energy investment decisions. The differences in points of departure result in distinctly different base levels of CO2 emissions ranging from almost stable CO2 emissions to a continuous growth. Several cases with a range of CO2 emission taxes have also been calculated to identify cost-effective strategies for CO2 emission reduction and to assess the potential contribution of energy technologies and sectors to CO2 reduction. It appears that energy efficiency improvements have the highest potential to contribute to CO2 emission reduction. Fossil fuel switching and nuclear energy are relatively cost-effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions. The contribution of renewables to CO2 reduction is relatively small with low CO2 taxes but it is substantial with high CO2 tax levels. 17 refs.

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