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Title:
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Development of long-term energy scenarios for the Czech Republic
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-12-1999
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--99-009
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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10
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
The Czech Government faces important decisions that will have a largeimpact on future energy supply and demand. These decisions need to be
taken in the preparation of the Energy Policy Document of the Czech
Republic, which is on-going at the moment (July 1999). For the preparation
of the new Energy Policy Document, ECN Policy Studies performed the
study "Development of integrated energy-environment scenarios for the
Czech Republic". Main aim was to provide policy makers insight in the
impacts of key policy decisions in Czech energy policy in the next 35
years. The study was carried out in the scope of the EU Synergy Programme.
Additional support was obtained from the Dutch Ministry of Economic
Affairs, the Czech Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Czech Ministry
of Environment, the Czech union of employers in the power and heat sector,
the Czech union of employers in the coal and oil sector and the Czech
gas union.
Methodology
To deal with the many uncertainties within a transition economy, a scenario
approach was chosen as the basis of the analysis. Because the integration
into the EU is a key political objective in the Czech Republic, three
EU scenarios were used as the starting point to develop scenarios for
the Czech Republic. The EU scenarios provide quantitative time-series
on a wide range of macro-economic indicators for the EU as a whole,
like the price of oil and gas on the world market, the economic growth
within Europe, general technological innovation, and labour and capital
productivity. On the basis of the EU-scenarios, a further translation
of quantitative and qualitative macro-economic scenario indicators to
the Czech Republic was made.
The modelling system that was used for the analysis has two components.
The macro-economic analysis and the calculation of the future energy
demand were carried out with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)
model of the Czech Republic. The Energy Flow Optimisation Model (EFOM-ENV)
was used to analyse the optimal energy supply and demand system.
Key issues and case studies
The key policy decisions to be taken include the future role of domestic
coal production, (de-) commissioning of nuclear power capacity, increase
of natural gas imports, the future of CHP production and the implementation
of an energy tax. Each of these issues could induce large effects on
employment, environmental emissions, energy efficiency and import dependency.
To support the policy making process the study focused on the following
aspects:
Development of energy demand: Expected development of energy demand
in the period 2000-2030, incorporating the impact of economic restructuring,
price increases and fuel shifts.
The future role of domestic coal production: Analysis of the impact
of abolishing current regional and environmental restrictions on domestic
coal mining.
The future role of nuclear power: Decommissioning of the existing Dukovany
nuclear power plant around the year 2015, Finalisation of the new 2000
MW Temelin nuclear power plant and the impact of a complete nuclear
phase-out.
The imports of natural gas: Growth of natural gas imports and the consequences
of replacing domestic coal mining and nuclear power with gas imports.
Development of environmental emissions. Estimated abatement and saving
potentials, consequences of the Kyoto target and the impact of implementing
a CO2 tax.
Renewable energy production: Identification of the cost-effective potential
of renewable energy production, effect of CO2 tax on the share of renewables.
Combined heat and power production: Identification of the cost-effective
potential of CHP production, estimation of energy efficiency increases
due to use of CHP.
Main results
Average annual GDP growth could range between 2 and 3% in the Czech
Republic in the period 2000-2030. If sufficient cost-effective energy
measures are taken, the corresponding growth in primary and final energy
demand could be much lower, due to the increase in supply and demand
efficiency, and the fuel shift from coal to natural gas. The economic
potential of end-use energy savings is around 20% of total primary energy
demand in the period 2000-2030.
The share of coal will decrease strongly, mainly to be replaced by natural
gas imports and nuclear power. If coal-mining restrictions are not abolished,
the available domestic hard coal and brown coal production capacities
reduce to 30 million tons in 2030. Otherwise, the domestic coal production
capacity will be 43.5 million tons in 2030.
Gas imports will increase between 1.5 and 3% per year between 2000 and
2030. The highest growth is witnessed in the case with complete nuclear
phase-out and continuation of the current regional coal mining restriction.
Large increases in gas imports means that diversification of supplier
should have high priority. Gas-fired combined cycle becomes the dominant
technology in CHP production. The long-term cost-effective potential
of CHP production is around 35% of total electricity production.
Prolonging the lifetime of the Dukovany nuclear power plant and commissioning
the Temelin nuclear power plant as planned will increase the share of
nuclear power in public power production to around 50%.
If all cost-effective measures are implemented, the Kyoto target of
8% reduction of CO2 emissions in 2010 compared to 1990 could be met
without large difficulties. On a longer term, CO2 emissions can remain
at a more-or-less constant level compared to 1995. Renewable energy
could gain a market share of 4% in 2010 and 7% in 2030 if appropriate
policy measures are taken to tackle market barriers. Energy taxation
would in the long-run double end-use prices and largely increase energy
efficiency. The impact on promotion of renewable energy is only small,
because of limited potentials and limited cost-effectiveness.
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