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Title:
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Verkenning Co2-emissie Rotterdam HIC 2015/2020/2025
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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18-5-2010
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-E--10-031
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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25
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
The Rotterdam Climate Initiative (RCI) has set a regional CO2 emission target of 12 Mton CO2/year for the city and port of Rotterdam in 2025. This target is defined as a 50% reduction compared to the emission in 1990. RCI requested ECN to estimate the autonomous development of CO2 emissions of the sectors energy & industry and freight transport in the future years 2015, 2020 and 2025. The study provides an update of the earlier estimate of 2007 and can be used to support future policies. The results show that the CO2 emission of the sector energy & industry in the port of Rotterdam will increase autonomously to 34 Mton in 2015 and 37 Mton in 2020 and then decrease to 31 Mton CO2 in 2025. The CO2 emission of freight transport will increase to 1.4 Mton CO2 in 2015, 1.6 Mton CO2 in 2020 and 1.7 Mton CO2 in 2025. These results indicate a substantial increase of the CO2 emission of these sectors in the port of Rotterdam in the studied period compared to the 2008 situation.
The following assumptions are relevant for this study:
• The current Dutch energy and environmental policy will not change.
• The future economy will be substantially affected by the economic crisis in 2009 and 2010 and will be characterised by moderate growth afterwards.
• Expansion of the chemical industry will follow the ‘base scenario’ with regard to the spatial development of the Maasvlakte 2 area.
• Maasvlakte 2 will enable the future continuation of economic growth for storage and transfer of goods.
• The refinery capacity will not expand, but it will be partially renovated to accommodate stricter future directives for fuels.
• Two new coal-fired power plants will enter into operation before 2015 and one (E.ON Maasvlakte) will be shut down after 2020. Furthermore, a new coal-fired IGCC power plant equipped with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) will enter into operation between 2020 and 2025.
• Freight transport volume per transport mode will follow the total volume of storage and transfer of goods and the historic trend in modal shift. Moreover, the transport sector is characterised by energy efficiency improvements in river transport and trucks.
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