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ECN publication
Het effect van aerosol-deeltjes op het klimaat is niet-lineair
Published by: Publication date:
ECN 1997
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-I--97-037 Other
Number of pages: Full text:
22 Download PDF  

In IPCC scenarios it is assumed that the (cooling) effects of aerosols onclimatic change are proportional with the concentration and the emission of (anthropogenic) aerosols. In this article it is shown that such a linear dependency can not exist. Most of the anthropogenic particulates are not directly emitted by pollution sources, but are formed in the atmosphere by oxidation of emitted gases, e.g. SO2 and NOx. For Europe the relation between emission of the gases and the amount of aerosols is far from linear. Not only the amount but also the size of the aerosol particulates changes when the quantity of material differs as a result of emission changes. The number of particulates, which is the best measure for the indirect effect, hardly shows a connection with the amount of aerosol material and the number could even increase as a result of emission reduction. It can be concluded that the aerosol effects are strongly nonlinear. 5 refs.

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