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Title:
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Learning in PV trends and future prospects
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Energy in the Built Environment
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1-6-2004
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-RX--04-068
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Conference Paper
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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7
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Download PDF
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Presented at: 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, Paris, France, 7-11 juni 2004.
Abstract:
For large scale application of PV cost reduction is essential.
It is shown in this study that the price evolution is on track and even
accelerating the last 15 years. Using an experience curve approach a
learning rate of little over 20% was found consistent with other studies.
As data were collected for small rooftop grid connected systems, it
could be shown that this learning rate is not only found for modules,
but also for BOS in Germany as well as in the Netherlands. Projections
of the future price of PV systems show that a learning rate of at least
20% is needed to make introduction of PV affordable. It is very effective
to invest in learning, thus increasing the learning rate, as well as
developing market segments were the value of PV is higher, such as residential
PV systems in southern Europe.
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