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ECN publication
Learning in PV trends and future prospects
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Energy in the Built Environment 1-6-2004
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-RX--04-068 Conference Paper
Number of pages: Full text:
7 Download PDF  

Presented at: 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition, Paris, France, 7-11 juni 2004.

For large scale application of PV cost reduction is essential. It is shown in this study that the price evolution is on track and even accelerating the last 15 years. Using an experience curve approach a learning rate of little over 20% was found consistent with other studies. As data were collected for small rooftop grid connected systems, it could be shown that this learning rate is not only found for modules, but also for BOS in Germany as well as in the Netherlands. Projections of the future price of PV systems show that a learning rate of at least 20% is needed to make introduction of PV affordable. It is very effective to invest in learning, thus increasing the learning rate, as well as developing market segments were the value of PV is higher, such as residential PV systems in southern Europe.

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