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ECN publication
Title:
The prospects of SO2 and CO2 emission from the energy system of Fujian Province, China: a case study using MARKAL and MARKAL-MACRO models
 
Author(s):
Shi Xiang Jun, ; Li Lin, 
 
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1996
 
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-I--96-045 ECN publication
 
Number of pages: Full text:
57 Download PDF  

Abstract:
With its economic and social development Fujian will rely more and moreon fossil fuel supply from other provinces and abroad, and the environmental impacts of its energy system will also be more and more serious. In particular, since some regions of the province have already been identified by the environmental protection authority of the state in 1995 as regions with serious acid precipitation. The present study shows that final energy demands in Fujian, a province in the south-east part of China, will reach 160 Mtce per year in the period of 2031-2035, with 83% to be met by imported energy. The share of fossil fuel will be about 93% of the total commercial energy resources if no other non-fossil energy, such as nuclear or renewable energy, can be utilized. In this case the SO2 emission from the Fujian energy supply/demand system will reach 1.26 Mt per year (4x the present), and the annual CO2 emission will be 388 Mt (6x the 1993 level). According to the actual condition of the province, introduction of nuclear and renewable energies were explored in the study, and the substitution of the capital and labour resources for energy was also assessed with the MARKAL-MACRO model. With an optimized alternative energy supply/demand structure under an external cost regime for SO2 emission, the total amount of energy carriers for final use by the province could be reduced from 160 Mtce to 127 Mtce in 2033, and the total emissions of SO2 and CO2 would be 0.66 and 245 Mt, respectively, with reductions of emissions of 0.6 Mt SO2 and 143 Mt CO2. The background information of the province and its reference energy system are presented in Sections 1 and 2. Section 3 describes the energy demand projection. From Section 4 to Section 7 the Base Case and 4 Alternative Options for the Fujian energy system using the MARKAL model are specified. Section 8 shows the optimized results from the MARKAL-MACRO model. 14 figs., 47 tabs., 3 appendices, 7 refs.


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