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Title:
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Nieuwe apparaten en leefstijl: gevolgen voor het huishoudelijk elektriciteitsverbruik in 2010
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-4-1998
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--98-011
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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107
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
ECN Policy Studies in cooperation with Van Holsteijn and Kemna hascarried out a study to investigate the possible trends in utilisation and
ownership of domestic appliances, more specifically new or renewed types of
appliances, in the Netherlands. An estimate of the consequences of life-style
trends for future energy use is also made. It is important that policy makers
have an indication of the range in development of domestic energy
consumption. The robustness of specific trends in energy use can be helpful
in setting priorities for energy saving policies. First, the interaction
between technological development and consumer behaviour is assessed by
screening several theoretical concepts as well as examining empirical
evidence. Subsequently, actual robust trends in consumer technology and
life-styles are investigated and assessed in terms of likely consequences for
developments in ownership and use of such new appliances in addition to
residential electricity consumption. The assessment of the development of
future electricity consumption depends on historical trends and on the type
of model used. Therefore, the historical development of domestic electricity
consumption is analysed. The objective of this analysis is to identify the
factors which determine the development of residential electricity
consumption. Also the methods and results of some forecasting studies in the
Netherlands are compared. The range of the development of domestic
electricity use is assessed by varying a number of model parameters such as
growth of GDP, energy prices and efficiency improvement. Special attention is
paid to the interaction between life-style trends, e.g. a raise in disposable
income, scarcity of spare time, raising the convenience level and the
increase in electricity consumption. Finally, possible policies are
identified which could contribute to a diminished growth of domestic
electricity consumption. 61 refs.
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