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Title:
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Trends in foreign power generation reserves and consequences for the supply security of the Dutch power market
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-10-2003
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--03-117
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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21
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
In the Netherlands, in 2001, total net imports amounted to around 16%of the total consumed elec-tricity. As a result of the market liberalisation,
the upgrading of interconnectors and lower wholesale prices from surrounding
countries - primarily Germany and France - imports displaced more expen-sive
generators from the Dutch market. It is expected that in the shorter-term
these power plants are mothballed and become available again when prices
rise due to an in increase in demand and/or de-crease in supply . However,
if in the medium and longer term they remain outside the market, they
will most probably be decommissioned. This, combined with only a limited
number of new power plants, will reduce the total national generation
capacity and increase the country?s dependency on imports. The expected
further increase in the interconnector capacity might even exacerbate
this trend making the Netherlands even more dependent on foreign imports.
This note investigates two questions put forward by the ministry of
Economic Affairs, in relation to the project Electricity for Ever (E4E).
More specifically, (1) it investigates the situation in surround-ing
countries regarding expected development of production capacity and
reserve margins of elec-tricity. Furthermore, (2) it investigates on
the consequences of the developments of neighbouring production capacity
on the imports to the Netherlands. For answers to these questions three
aspects are of importance: (1) the availability of interconnections
that allows for electricity imports, (2) for-eign generation capacity
excess during peak demand that might be available for exports to the
Neth-erlands and (3) the impact of market structures in surrounding
countries on the (de)commissioning of power plants and, subsequently,
on the reserve margins of national electricity systems.
In this note, first, the current and potential development of interconnection
capacity between the Dutch and surrounding power systems is discussed,
including the explanation why only countries are investigated that are
geographically close to the Netherlands. Second, the generation adequacy
is analysed for Belgium, France, Germany and England & Wales, by monitoring
reserve margin trends and analysing the market structure of each country.
For reasons of comparison also reserve margin trends for the Netherlands
will be presented. Finally, some general conclusions are considered.
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