From a European perspective the Netherlands can be viewed as a niche
for experiments where variation is stimulated and adaptive capacity
is maintained, while Europe is the selection environment that ultimately
determines the success of energy technologies. At the same time, it
is clear that the European selection environment itself is not immune
to geopolitical and socio-cultural changes at the global level. Indeed,
the European energy regime will evolve in different directions dependent
upon those global changes and Europe?s own ambitions at the global scale.
Accordingly, the future course of European energy transitions is described
in four contrasting scenarios:
- Firewalled Europe
- Fossil trade
- Sustainable trade
- Fenceless Europe
The roles that Dutch companies can play on the European level differ
fundamentally between these four scenarios. Making robust strategic
choices for energy innovation policies in such contrasting scenarios
is the challenge for strategic niche management in the Netherlands.
In order to do so wisely, the Netherlands must follow the adagio 'think
globally, act locally'. It must not only consider European ambitions
on the global scale, but it must also attempt to close the gap between
technological innovations and profit opportunities at the local level.
Alliances with regional economic interests are crucial in this respect.
Given that the Netherlands is already acting as an energy gateway for
Europe it has an excellent starting position. However, the future is
likely to bring structural changes in energy value chains and only adequate
innovation in different parts of those energy value chains can lead
to success.