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Title:
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Onzekerheden in de Referentieramingen. Achtergrondrapport bij het rapport 'Referentieramingen energie en emissies 2005-2020'
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-9-2005
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-RX--05-112
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Book
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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92
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Download PDF
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Published in:.
Abstract:
The Dutch targets for greenhouse gases, ammonia and
non-methane VOCs will likely be met in 2010 according to our calculations
from an uncertainty analysis in the framework of the project on
Reference Projections for energy, climate and acidifying emissions.
However, it is unlikely that the targets for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen
oxide will be attained This study distinguished between sources of uncertainty
in the input variables of the Reference Projections. These sources were
quantified with the help of the 'Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment
and Communication' and 'expert judgement'. With the aid of a statistical
Monte Carlo analysis, margins and probability distributions were determined
for the most important outcomes of the Reference Projections.
These probability distributions led, for example, to several statements
being made on the chances of meeting certain targets. The use of 'Guidance
for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication' was also evaluated.
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