ECN publication
SAVE-transport overige vervoerswijzen personenvervoer: modellering van energieverbruiksontwikkelingen in het personenvervoer
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1997
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-I--97-007 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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The objective of the Simulation and Analysis of Virtual energy use inEnergy scenarios (SAVE) model is the analysis of future energy savings possibilities for end users in conjunction with volume growth and structural changes in the socio-economic system. This report describes the SAVE-Transport unit 'Other Means of Transport for Passengers': bus, train, electric city transport (tram, underground, trolleybus), airplane, van, taxi, motorcycle, moped, and ship. Each of these transport means have been separately modelled to calculate the developments in energy use of the modelled transport means for five year periods until 2020. In SAVE the difference between future energy use and that of the base year is attributed to three factors: volume developments, structural changes and savings. The results of the model consist of energy use (in PJ) per means of conveyance from 1995 to 2020 with intervals of 5 years. The energy use calculations are based on historical data. According to the model calculations passenger air transport appears to be an important energy user in the future. This is caused by the assumed huge aviation growth, especially in comparison to the demand for other means of transport. The latter does not grow very fast and sometimes even decreases, due to the assumptions of the Global Shift scenario. Therefore, a decrease of energy use seems to make most sense in aviation. Both in absolute terms (diminishing volume growth) as well as in relative terms (savings). The potential of savings appears to be able to accomplish a considerable decrease in energy use (under given volume growth) for all means of transport, with maximum savings varying from 30% (motorcycle, trolleybus) to 65% (diesel van). The implementation of energy saving measures should always be accompanied by an analysis of the costs and benefits of the proposed measures. Some recommendations for further research can be pointed out. The most important of these are the development of the possibility to include several parallel volume developments scenarios in the model and the calculation of energy use in primary energy terms instead of in secondary energy terms. 20 figs., 35 tabs., 78 refs.

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