ECN publication
Monitoring energieverbruik 1982-1996: methode, resultaten en perspectieven
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-12-1998
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--98-046 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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According to the Third White Paper on Energy Policy the Dutch governmentintends to monitor, on a regular basis, developments in the national energy system. Special attention should be paid to renewable energy supply, energy savings and the transition towards markets for energy carriers. There is also a need to calculate, as far as possible, the effects of recent energy policy measures, to make a comparison with other countries and to find 'white spots' in the monitoring field. This report is a first attempt, broad but of limited depth, to fulfil these goals. First, an analysis-framework, called MONIT, has been developed to unravel in a systematic and consistent manner the changes in total and sectoral energy use from year tot year over the period 1982-1996. MONIT can be described as a mixture of an energy balance, with energy carriers and sectors, and a simple simulation model of historic energy use. Besides the analysis function the MONIT system can be used also to present all kinds of historic trends: energy use per sector and/or energy carrier, with or without corrections for yearly climate variations. Next, analyses were made of energy use in the period 1982-1996 for a number of end use and supply sectors: households, industry, horticulture, services, construction, transportation, refineries, power plants and gas supply. Next to energy itself attention was paid in each sector to a number of variables, which influence energy use, leading to the calculation of energy-intensities. Furthermore, trends with (more efficient) energy using systems, including cogeneration, were mapped. From these sectoral analyses estimates have been acquired for the value of the three main factors which are responsible for energy use developments: volume-, structure- and saving-effects. The first effect differs per sector, e.g. production (value added) in industry, person-kilometres driven in transportation and number of inhabitants in the household sector. The savings effect is the result of various measures to lower energy use, without restricting the need for energy services, such as heated houses and kilometers travelled. The structure effect consist of all socio-economic developments which lead to a faster or slower growth of the need for energy services than follows from the main driving force, represented in the volume effect. With this sectoral information calculations have been executed with MONIT; the results encompass a split up of national and sectoral changes in energy use into ten different parts. Included are also changes due to variations in the supply side of the energy system. The last part of the report encompasses a comparison with a number of relevant countries: Sweden, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom and Denmark. Apart from energy use and energy intensity trends, special attention has been paid to policy goals and (new) measures, market trends, etc. Finally, an overview is given of the way to gain more insights into energy developments for policy makers. The present results from MONIT are used to select the most rewarding areas with respect to improving the monitoring results. 41 refs.

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