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Title:
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What scenario studies tell about security of energy supply in Europe
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-6-2001
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--01-054
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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56
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
On behalf of the Dutch General Energy Council (AER) ECN Policy studiesperformed a brief technical fact-finding study on security of energy
supply from the European point of view and from the point of view of
the Netherlands, as a background to the draft Green Paper on European
energy supply security by the European Commission. In this study a brief
assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources. Based on data from
the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other literature, the
reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional oil is
estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS data, the
reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated at
190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large. However,
environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable
resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world
is proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production
ratio of 230 years. All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel,
whereas the supply of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and
the supply of coal is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called
Shared analysis project, performed by a number of research institutes
in the EU, gives useful points of departure for energy policy formulation.
However, the results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser
extent its variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and
the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully.
A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The Outlook
gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported
oil and gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990
to 80% in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption,
import dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34%
in 1997 to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in
collaboration with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural
gas in total primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55%
in all of the scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural
gas is very dominant, both in PJ and in relative terms. In the related
ECN study it is argued that a too strong focus on gas-fired power incurs
risks of security of supply, due to ongoing depletion of indigenous
gas resources. Finally, a few main themes from the Green Paper are highlighted,
viz.:
- Controlling the growth of demand. Fiscal interventions in energy
prices should remove distortions between alternative energy carriers
and between Member States and make that energy prices will reflect real
costs including environmental damage costs.
- Managing supply dependence. New renewables should be vigorously
stimulated. In particular for natural gas geographical diversification
of supply would appear desirable, especially as far as LNG is concerned.
Funding research on civil nuclear technology should be continued. A
minimum coal production platform should be maintained.
A technical fact-finding study on security of energy supply has been
performed from the European point of view and from the point of view
of the Netherlands. A brief assessment is presented of fossil fuel resources.
Based on data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and other
literature, the reserves/production ratio of conventional and unconventional
oil is estimated at approximately 200 years. Based on the same USGS
data, the reserves/production ratio of conventional natural gas is estimated
at 190 years. The unconventional gas resources are extremely large.
However, environmental damage has to be prevented. The amount of recoverable
resources will remain a question mark for the time being. The world's
proved recoverable coal reserves amount to a reserves/production ratio
of 230 years.
All in all, oil remains a strategic fossil fuel, whereas the supply
of natural gas seems to be more well-balanced and the supply of coal
is more secure than both of oil and gas. The so-called Shared analysis
project, performed by a number of research institutes in the EU, gives
useful points of departure for energy policy formulation. However, the
results of notably the reference scenario and to a lesser extent its
variants in terms of primary energy use, CO2 emissions, and
the EU's import dependence for fossil fuels have to be regarded carefully.
A similar picture arises from IEA's World Energy Outlook 2000. The 'Out-look'
gives due attention to OECD Europe's dependence on imported oil and
gas. The share of oil imports is due to rise from 32% in 1990 to 80%
in 2020. Due to a projected steady growth of gas consumption, import
dependence with respect to natural gas is due to rise from 34% in 1997
to about 65% in 2020. In the scenarios developed by CPB, in collaboration
with AVV, ECN, and RIVM, in 1997, the share of natural gas in total
primary energy demand is projected to increase to 50-55% in all of the
scenarios. In the most energy intensive scenarios, natural gas is very
dominant, both in PJ and in relative terms. In the related ECN study
it is argued that a too strong focus on gas-fired power incurs risks
of security of supply, due to ongoing depletion of indigenous gas resources.
Finally, a few main themes from the Green Paper are highlighted, viz.:
Controlling the growth of demand. Fiscal interventions in energy prices
should remove distortions between alternative energy carriers and between
Member States and make that energy prices will reflect real costs including
environmental damage costs; and Managing supply dependence. New renewables
should be vigorously stimulated. In particular for natural gas geographical
diversification of supply would appear desirable, especially as far
as LNG is concerned. Funding research on civil nuclear technology should
be continued.
A minimum coal production platform should be maintained. 23 refs.
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