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Title:
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Long-term electricity supply systems dynamics. A historic analysis
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Author(s):
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Scheepers, M.J.J.; Verbong, G.; Vleuten, E. van der
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-10-2002
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--02-084
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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40
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
In this report we have developed a general historical model for thedevelopment of national and European electricity supply systems. Our
main thesis is that the critical problems of each era are formulated
against the realities of the preceding era. Changing existing systems
however is difficult, because of a technical, network related path dependency
(contained within the existing electricity supply system) and a social,
actor related path dependency.
We have also identified the main
factors and drivers behind this process. For this purpose we have used
a multi-level model, developed for analysing complex processes of socio-technical
change. Each national electricity supply system can be described along
four dimensions: the material infrastructure, the institutional framework,
the fuel mix and the national (energy) political agenda. The major external
or macro factors are: economic development, energy prices, technological
development, the general drive for liberalisation, European integration,
environmentalism and ?Events?. The European electricity supply system
will also have a major impact on the development of national systems.
Finally some implications for scenario development have been given.
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