ECN publication
De internationale verankering van het transitiebeleid voor energie
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-12-2005
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--05-012 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
31 Download PDF  

The Netherlands has recently started a policy trajectory for energytransitions. Energy transi-tions are defined as long term, co-evolutionary developments of technological and social sys-tems. Such transitions are deemed necessary to move towards a sustainable energy system. So far, the emphasis has been on national transition policy. Recent evaluations have indicated the importance of embedding national efforts in a European framework. The present study serves as a preparatory exploration of doing so by constructing European energy transition scenarios that can serve as a testing ground for Dutch energy innovations. The proposed scenarios signal two potential bifurcation points on the global landscape that could lead to completely different European energy regimes. One bifurcation point concerns the future course of globalisation and the consequences this may have for effective global climate change policies. The other bifurcation point concerns the arrival of a crisis on world energy markets. Depending on global devel-opments with respect to these two issues Europe could end up in four different types of energy regimes. The scenarios for these regimes are called Firewalled Europe (oil peak arrives, climate change policies fail), Fossil Trade (oil peak avoided, climate change policies fail), Sustainable Trade (oil peak arrives, climate change policies succeed) and Fenceless Europe (oil peak avoided, climate change policies succeed).

The final report for these scenarios is available as ?The next 50 years: four European energy futures? (downloadable from

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