ECN publication
Een blik op de toekomst met SAWEC
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-7-2005
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--05-070 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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A model has been developed for the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial planning and the Envi-ronment, Directorate General for Housing. This model, which is used for the calculation and analysis of (future) residential energy consumption, is named SAWEC (Simulation and analysis model for residential energy consumption and CO2 emissions). SAWEC simulates residential energy consumption as of 1985. The model is used for the assessment of future residential gas consumption in the framework of the Reference Projections 2005-2020. This report describes a moderate growth scenario of these projections to illustrate how SAWEC operates and to demon-strate the results.


Three main conclusions can be drawn with respect to the development of residential energy con-sumption in the scenario until 2020:

· The total gas demand decreases despite an increase in the number of inhabited houses. This decrease is the result of a decrease in gas demand per household, with respect to both space heating and heating of tap water. Gas demand for space heating will decrease as a result of the improvement of the average degree of insulation, the application of more efficient boilers and the increase of the average outdoor temperature. This decrease in gas demand is partly counteracted by the ongoing growth in size of new houses.

· Energy consumption develops gradually as ?conventional? techniques are replaced with more efficient techniques. There were no obvious discontinuities in the development of energy savings in the period 1985-2020.

· The model makes among others a distinction between dwellings built before 1995 and after 1995. Dwellings built after 1995 use on average approximately 45% less energy per dwell-ing (in 2020) than the dwellings built before 1995, despite the lower energy demand before savings.

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