ECN publication
EU Standards for Energy Security of Supply - Updates on the Crisis Capability Index and the Supply/Demand Index Quantification for EU-27
Scheepers, M.J.J.; Seebregts, A.J.; Jong, J.J. de; Maters, J.M.
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 13-4-2007
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-E--07-004 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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In a review process to assess the energy security of supply (SoS) for the EU and individual Member States, standards can provide a common and objective framework in EU energy policy. In particular, they could be useful in the context of the Strategic EU Energy Review as proposed by the European Commission in its recent Energy Package. Standards should be based on security of supply indicators. This report is an update and extension of a similar report, published in June 2006. It elaborates the proposed concept of energy security of supply standards. It explains the role of (novel) indicators in the standards and the process for using and developing them. Also the use of SoS standards in a review process of energy supply security is elucidated. The report describes (an update) of the development of two quantitative indicators that can be used in EU security of supply standards. The first one is the Supply/Demand Index, which is based on a Member State’s energy system covering not only the supply of primary energy sources but also the conversion and transport of secondary energy carriers and the final energy demands. The S/D Index is particularly well suited for assessing today’s energy security as well as energy security in the medium and longer term. The use of this indicator is illustrated with examples for the EU-27 and its 27 individual Member States. Today’s index values for these examples vary from 25 to 82, on a scale of 0 to 100. Indicative 2020 values range from 27 to 83, based on the EC Trends to 2030 scenarios published in 2006. On average, the SoS position worsens from 2005 to 2020 (from 56 to 53). The S/D Index is based largely on objective information contained in energy balances combined with weighing factors and scoring rules, using existing indicators to the extent possible. The most important uncertainties are addressed by sensitivity analyses. The second indicator is the Crisis Capability Index. With this indicator the capability of a Member State or the EU as a whole to manage and mitigate short-term supply interruptions can be assessed. Finally, the standard includes qualitative considerations concerning the multilateral measures to secure overall producer/consumer relations and safeguarding vulnerable transport routes for oil and gas.

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