ECN publication
Actualisatie van de uitstoot van broeikasgassen in het SE- en GE-scenario
Kroon, P.; Peek, C.J.; Volkers, C.H.
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 5-7-2007
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-E--07-028 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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In May 2005 ECN/MNP published the ‘Reference projections energy and emissions 2005-2020’ (ECN-C--05-089). This is the first projection based on a new methodology in the calculation of the Dutch CO2-emissions. For this new methodology new energy statistics and a first concept of the National Inventory Report 2005 (NIR, 2005) where published in January 2005. After finishing the calculations it appeared, there were changes made between the January and the April version of the NIR 2005. The effect of these changes can be found in a separate letter in the ECN/MNP report. As expected, new developments appeared between May 2005 and May 2007, which also effect the Greenhouse Gas emission projections. This report gives an overview of the main changes and their effect on the projected emissions in 2010 and 2020. Major changes are: a new projection for the transport sector and a updated projection for the other sectors, a substantial growth in the use of electricity production (CHP) with gas engines in greenhouses, the publication of the allocation plan for the emission trading period 2008-2012, the reduction of industrial N2O emissions, a number of plans for new coal power plants, and a governmental decision to the use of 5.75% biofuels in the transport sector in 2010. The update is made for two scenarios: the GE scenario with a high economic growth and the SE scenario with a lower economic growth and more environmental concern. The update results for 2010 in 212 Mton CO2-eq in GE (-8 Mton) and 208 Mton CO2-eq in SE (-8 Mton). The reduction is mainly the result of the CO2 allocation plan and the industrial N2O reduction. For 2020 the results are 243 Mton CO2-eq in GE (+0.5 Mton) and 212 Mton CO2-eq in SE (-10 Mton). The difference between both scenarios is mainly caused by the new projections for the transport sector. These results include emission trading from industry (in 2010) but exclude purchases of emission rigths by the Dutch Government. For the ‘Climate Policy Progress Report 2007’ a concept report was made in March. This concept did not contain the latest changes in the NIR 2007 (April version). The total Dutch emissions in the concept report are 0,1 to 0,4 Mton lower.

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