ECN publication
Actualisatie referentieramingen. Energie en emissies 2008-2020
DaniĆ«ls, B.W.; Maas, C.W.M. van der
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 14-9-2009
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-E--09-010 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
146 Download PDF  

Changes in energy prices, policies and other developments justified an update of the Global Economy variant of the Reference Projections 2005-2020. This report describes the update, in-cluding two energy price variants. Apart from the energy prices, the main changes relevant for energy and greenhouse gas emissions include the higher CO2 price assumed in the emission trading system, the inclusion of plans for new power plants, the recent surge in new horticulture combined heat and power, the new policies for renewable electricity and the inclusion of new transport projections. These developments may affect the emissions of air pollutants as well. Major changes that are specifically relevant for the emissions of air pollutants are the agree-ments with refineries and electricity producers on the emissions of SO2. The reference projections include only policies that have already been decided on in their defini-tive form. Hence, the results include only part of the Clean and Efficient policy programme. The assumptions for future economic growth and demography still originate from the Global Econ-omy scenario. However, the results for the period 2005-2008 now reflect historic realizations where data availability allows to do so. Greenhouse gas emissions are considerably higher than in the Reference Projections 2005-2020, which is mainly due to the surge of new power plants. However, these emissions are included under the cap of the European CO2 emission trading system. Therefore, they do not affect the emissions as defined under the National and European targets. The changes in emissions that are not included in the trading system are much smaller.

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