ECN publication
Market analysis biofuels. Implications for the armed forces in the Netherlands
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 2-10-2009
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-E--09-039 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
49 Download PDF  

Commercial road fuels are increasingly blended with biofuels. These biofuel blends impose risks for the specific application in the military environment. Therefore the Ministry of Defence has commissioned ECN to provide a market analysis of biofuel (blends) projected to become available up till 2030, with a focus on diesel fuels for ground use. We conclude that the percentage of conventional biodiesel (FAME) in the EU is likely to increase up to around 7% until 2020. It is unlikely that the share of FAME in commercially available diesel blends will increase above 10%. Hydrogenated vegetable oil (HVO) is expected to gain an increasing market share, especially in the time window 2015-2020. After 2020, the fraction of biogenic diesel in blends may further increase. However, this additional demand will most likely be met by the production of advanced high quality 2nd generation BTL diesel, thereby not reducing the fuel quality, also not for military applications. From a global perspective, it is most likely that up to 2030 biodiesel blends will only contain a minor average fraction of diesel from biological origin (~below 3%). The main reason is that biofuel substitutes for petrol are expected to maintain their market share of about 80% of the total biofuel production. However, in addition to the EU, biodiesel blends up to 10% may also be introduced in regions with a large biodiesel feedstock supply potential, such as South East Asia, Latin America or Sub-Sahara Africa.

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