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Title:
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Brandstofvraagreductie bij oliecrisis; Evaluatie van vraagreducerende maatregelen voor de transportsector
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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26-1-2010
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-E--09-076
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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52
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
Every IEA member state must have in place measures to reduce oil demand during oil supply emergencies. The transport sector offers significant opportunities to reduce oil demand with relatively limited impact on the overall economy. To determine which measures are useful in the Dutch situation, this report performs a quick scan of a number of demand restraint measures in the transport sector. The quick scan ranks measures by their effectiveness, feasibility, and efficiency. Based on the quick scan results, three measures have been selected for further research (Sunday driving ban, work-trip reduction, and carpooling). Additionally, the effects of price increases on oil demand have been examined.
Five refineries and a large petrochemical industry sector are based in the Netherlands. Therefore, the shares of passenger road transport (20%) and freight road transport (12%) in the national oil demand are comparatively low. As a consequence an oil demand reduction in road transport of at least 20% to 30% is required to meet the national oil demand reduction target of 7% to 10% agreed within IEA.
Price effects during an oil crisis are uncertain given limited research, and estimated to reduce oil demand from passenger road transport by 15% to 35% and oil demand from freight road transport by 10% to 25%. Given the uncertainty, this effect was halved to obtain a conservative estimate of 2% to 4% of national oil demand reduction as a result of price effects. A Sunday driving ban can lead to reductions of 50% to 80% of passenger travel on Sundays, leading to savings of 1% to 1.5% of national oil demand. Work-trip reduction policies can reduce work-trips by 10% and lead to reductions of 0.5% to 1% of total oil demand. Carpooling has the greatest potential, reducing work trips up to 30% and leading to 0% to 2.5% savings of national oil demand. The broad range of the latter estimate is due to the limited options available to influence motorists to share their vehicles with others.
All measures have costs in the order of several million euros. This is relatively modest compared to the loss of excise duty income during an oil supply emergency, which is expected to be at least € 70 million for a three-month supply emergency in which oil demand is reduced by 7%.
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