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ECN publication
New Analysis - SOS Supply/Demand Index Ireland 2006 and 2020
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-10-2007
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-B--07-021 Book
Number of pages: Full text:
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Published in: Security of Supply in Ireland 2007, 54, 61, SEI Sustainable Energy Ireland, Energy Policy Statistical Unit.

This S/D Index is one of the three elements proposed as part of an ‘EU standard’ for the security of energy supply (Scheepers et al, 2007). This paper describes the results of the quantification of the S/D Index for Ireland for the years 2005, 2006 and for 2020. The results are presented in section 6.1. The quantification is based on a new model and data for Ireland. A short description of the essence of the S/D index and results for the EU-27 and its Member States (MS) is presented in section 6.2. The results for the EU-27 MS enable a comparison with respect to the relative position of Ireland. The PRIMES based quantifications as reported in (Scheepers et al., 2007) have been directly used for this comparison. Section 6.3 provides more details on the data assumptions for Ireland. The 2005 and 2006 quantification is based on a combination of data sources: • The 2005 and 2006 national energy balances, • Eurostat (2004, 2006) or PRIMES model results for the year 2005 (EC, 2006) supplemented with information from other sources (for example IEA, 2006). In addition, ECN has quantified the S/D index for the year 2020 based on two scenarios: • The ‘Trends to 2030’ scenario that has been recently updated (EC, 2006) based on PRIMES model results. The results of that quantification have also been reported in (Scheepers et al., 2007) and are summarised here (in section 6.2), mainly for comparison purposes. • SEI forecast for 2020, in which 30% of the electricity is produced by renewable sources and 6% of the transport fuel by bio-fuels (this forecast was prepared by the Economic and Social Research Institute, ESRI, for SEI in October 2006). Since the S/D Index model has been modified and improved in certain areas, the results of the previous quantification for Ireland (SEI, 2006) are not comparable to the quantifications presented here. Moreover, the 2005 value was partly based on provisional data for the year 2005. The definite 2005 figures in the most recent SEI energy balance are somewhat different. Therefore, the 2005 quantification is an update in order to enable a sensible comparison with the year 2006 and the forecast for the year 2020.

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