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ECN publication
Oil prices and climate change mitigation
Bakker, S.J.A.; Beurskens, L.W.M.; Grafakos, S.; Jansen, J.C.; Joode, J. de; Ruijven, B.J. van; Vuuren, D.P. van
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 29-5-2009
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-B--09-008 Book
Number of pages: Full text:
76 Download PDF  

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Future oil price trends and oil price volatility have a major impact on the economic attractiveness of distinct mitigation options and their mutual unit cost rankings. This paper assesses the impact of different oil price scenarios on the abatement costs of mitigation options in Europe in 2020, using a technology-by-technology approach with an ECN Abatement Cost model and on the long term global energy system and GHG emissions using TIMER. We conclude that many mitigation options becomes signficantly cheaper at higher oil prices, notably the more expensive technologies in the transport sector. Therefore carbon prices that are needed to achieve ambitious mitigation targets will be lower at sustained high oil prices. However higher energy prices do not lead automatically to lower emissions in the longer term; strong climate policy is necessary to ensure CCS application, thereby avoiding an increase emissions from electricity or hydrogen production and coal-to-liquids.

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