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Title:
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Resources and future availability of energy sources
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-6-2005
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--05-020
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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90
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
This assessment is a quick scan and analysis of recent
literature on the resources and availability of fossil, renewable, and
fissile energy sources. The fossil energy sources are oil, gas, and
coal; the renewables covered are wind, solar, and biomass; and the fissile
energy sources are uranium and thorium. The results of the scan and
analysis of literature data are described, and preliminary conclusions
are drawn.
A peak in oil production may be deferred to, e.g.,
2035, if the next conditions would be fulfilled:
·
Global oil demand does
not increase significantly.
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Resources of conventional
oil (e.g. Middle East) prove to be relatively large.
·
Unconventional oil resources
turn out to be large and producible in sizeable quantities.
The oil price hinges on the balance between oil demand
and supply. The oil market will tighten when ?Peak Oil? approaches.
If this happens in the near future, the oil price could remain high.
Gas production scenarios show that a peak may occur between 2020 and
2050. The peak may be deferred by a slowly increasing demand during
the next decades, and by successful exploration and production of conventional
gas. Unconventional gas resources are huge, but it is uncertain
to which extent they would be producible.
Coal reserves are rather evenly spread around
the globe, and a peak in coal production in the next 50 years is not
envisioned. Also a peak in production of uranium and thorium is not
envisioned in the first half of the 21st century. Current use will
not lead to a quick depletion.
Renewable energy sources are by definition infinite,
although their potential is bounded by geographical constraints. The
global and regional availability has been estimated for wind energy,
solar energy (PV), and biomass, together with a description of factors
influencing this availability. Specific analyses show that in 2035,
onshore wind, offshore wind, and PV could produce approximately 7, 18,
and 6%, respectively, of total power generation in the EU-15. The use
of biomass - energy crops, agricultural and forestry residues, and organic
waste - in the EU-15 may possibly increase from 2.1 to 7 EJ/a in the
period 2000-2050. Approximately one-third of this potential could be
made available by energy crops. On the long term, countries with surplus
biomass potential could develop into exporters of bioenergy (biofuels
from biomass).
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