A model has been developed for the Dutch Ministry of Housing, Spatial
planning and the Envi-ronment, Directorate General for Housing. This
model, which is used for the calculation and analysis of (future) residential
energy consumption, is named SAWEC (Simulation and analysis model for
residential energy consumption and CO2 emissions). SAWEC simulates residential
energy consumption as of 1985. The model is used for the assessment
of future residential gas consumption in the framework of the Reference
Projections 2005-2020. This report describes a moderate growth scenario
of these projections to illustrate how SAWEC operates and to demon-strate
the results.
Three
main conclusions can be drawn with respect to the development of residential
energy con-sumption in the scenario until 2020:
·
The total gas demand decreases despite an increase in the
number of inhabited houses. This decrease is the result of a decrease
in gas demand per household, with respect to both space heating and
heating of tap water. Gas demand for space heating will decrease as
a result of the improvement of the average degree of insulation, the
application of more efficient boilers and the increase of the average
outdoor temperature. This decrease in gas demand is partly counteracted
by the ongoing growth in size of new houses.
·
Energy consumption develops gradually as ?conventional? techniques
are replaced with more efficient techniques. There were no obvious discontinuities
in the development of energy savings in the period 1985-2020.
·
The model makes among others a distinction between dwellings
built before 1995 and after 1995. Dwellings built after 1995 use on
average approximately 45% less energy per dwell-ing (in 2020) than the
dwellings built before 1995, despite the lower energy demand before
savings.