This report presents a design philosophy for the arrangement of the Dutch energy system in 2050 and elaborates this for two cases. In contrast to usual studies on future energy systems, this report uses an approach that starts with the energy function that has to be fulfilled and designs the system towards the source of energy. The objective is to arrive at a system that uses minimal fossil energy sources and materials. The use of heat forms the leading role in the design of the system.
A stepwise approach has been designed that consists of three steps: (1) reduce energy end use, (2) reduce conversion losses, and (3) implement renewable energy. The remaining energy demand is filled in with fossil resources. An energy model of the Netherlands has been developed which facilitates the design by evaluating the consequences of technology options. The two cases that have been analyzed differ with respect to the heat production in the build environment (heat pumps versus micro combined heat and power) combined with a different application of biomass (synthetic natural gas versus biofuels).
The results show that increasing the energy efficiency (by reducing end use and reducing conversion losses) and the use of renewable energy contribute about equally to a more sustainable energy system. Roughly speaking, about ? of the original energy demand is reduced by energy savings, ? is supplied by renewable energy, and ? is still relying on fossil energy carriers.
The approach followed in this report does therefore not lead to a completely renewable Dutch energy system in 2050 despite the fact that significant energy saving measures and renewable energy options have been implemented. The results show that the increase in energy use can be substantially reduced compared to Business As Usual (BAU). The two cases arrive at 3049 PJ and 3187 PJ compared to 4348 PJ for the BAU scenario. The share of renewable energy for these cases are respectively 1747 PJ (57%) and 1653 PJ (52%).