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ECN publication
Wind power predictions analysis. Part. 2: economical analysis
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Wind Energy 1-8-2002
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-I--02-011 Other
Number of pages: Full text:
36 Download PDF  

In the first part, the five daily runs of predictions provided by thewind power prediction method developed by ECN have been compared. It appears that the freshest runs are not always the most accurate: their level of power is not accurate enough. It is concluded that the run of predictions including predictions beginning at 12 o'clock (UT) the previous day turns out to be the most accurate.

Then, we have compared different ways to fill an E-program: submitting a constant value for the E-program, using one run provided by the power prediction method (run 12) and updating the E-program each time there is a new set of predictions available. Here the imbalance costs is not a good criterion to take a decision in so far as it is not representative of the amount of imbalance sent to the grid. The best way to proceed is thus to use the run 12 to predict one?s production for the next day because it will bring about the smallest amount of imbalance.

In the final part of this study, we have made a method to help the producer to decide if it is worthwhile making change when E-program change is not free. This method computes the updating gains thanks to the improvement of the prediction and to the TenneT imbalance prices model. Then, if gains are superior to benefits, there is an E-program change. This method computes the updating gain with a confidence level of 60%.

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