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Title:
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Energy and emission monitoring for policy use. Trend analysis with reconstructed energy balances
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-7-2004
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-RX--04-109
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Article (scientific)
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Number of pages:
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0
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Published in: Energy Policy (Elsevier), , 2004, Vol.32, p.969-988.
Abstract:
For the presentation and analysis of historical energy and emission
trends a tool, called MONIT, has been developed. The MONIT system uses
energy balances, with about 20 sectors and all relevant energy carriers,
for the period from 1982 on. The energy related CO2-emissions
are also covered.
In the presentation part the statistical figures are converted
into a balance with corrections for disruptions in trends and other
adaptations, and into a balance with corrections for yearly climate
variations. Via a menu-based retrieval system, time series are given
for all combinations of energy variables and sectors. Information is
also available about the final demand for electricity or heat, co-generation,
primary energy use, direct and indirect CO2-emissions and energy intensities.
In the analysis part the energy use developments are mapped with
a set of constructed energy balances. The actual balance for a chosen
year is step-by-step reconstructed, starting from the base year balance.
In this way the actual changes in energy use are unravelled into 14
different explanatory factors: GDP-growth, energy-related structural
changes in end-use and energy sectors, savings on final demand and conversion
in end-use sectors, co-generation in end-use and energy sectors, fuel
mix changes, more efficient power stations and changes in export and
import of energy.
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