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Title:
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Endogenous learning in climate-energy-economic models. An inventory of key uncertainties
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-2-2004
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-RX--04-111
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Article (scientific)
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Number of pages:
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0
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Published in: International Journal of Energy Technology and Policy,2, 1/2, 2004, pp. 130-141. (Inderscience Publishers), , , Vol., p.-.
Abstract:
This paper gives an overview of uncertainties related to endogenouslearning as observed in integrated assessment models (IAMs) of global
warming, both for bottum-up and top-down climate-energy-economic models.
A classification is formulated by which uncertainties can be evaluated,
and parameter uncertainties. We emphasise that the analysis of uncertainties
in IAM exercises of global warming is essential for both scientific
and policy-making related reasons. At present, proper analyses of the
sensititivity and robustness characteristics of modelling results are
often omitted. Our main conclusion, and recommendation, is that in future
IAM analyses of climate change, both for the benefit of scientists and
public policy decision makers, the presence of different kinds of uncertainties
should be appropriately recognised, classified, quantified and reported.
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