Skip Navigation Links.

Search for publications:

Limit search to the fields

ECN publication
Onzekerheden in de Referentieramingen. Achtergrondrapport bij het rapport 'Referentieramingen energie en emissies 2005-2020'
Seebregts, A.J.; Gijsen, A.
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-9-2005
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-RX--05-112 Book
Number of pages: Full text:
92 Download PDF  

Published in:.


The Dutch targets for greenhouse gases, ammonia and non-methane VOCs will likely be met in 2010 according to our calculations from an uncertainty analysis in the framework of the project on Reference Projections for energy, climate and acidifying emissions. However, it is unlikely that the targets for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxide will be attained This study distinguished between sources of uncertainty in the input variables of the Reference Projections. These sources were quantified with the help of the 'Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication' and 'expert judgement'. With the aid of a statistical Monte Carlo analysis, margins and probability distributions were determined for the most important outcomes of the Reference Projections. These probability distributions led, for example, to several statements being made on the chances of meeting certain targets. The use of 'Guidance for Uncertainty Assessment and Communication' was also evaluated.

More Information:

Back to List