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Title:
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Construction of a case for expert judgement of uncertainty in early health effects models
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
NUCLEAIR
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1997
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-RX--97-058
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Article (scientific)
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Number of pages:
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21
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Published in: Contribution to the COSYMA user group meeting, 23-24 Sep. 1997, Prague (), , , Vol., p.-.
Abstract:
The contribution of ECN to a joint study of the European Commission (EC)and the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), in which the uncertainty in
risks and consequences of severe accidents at nuclear power plants are
evaluated, is described. The procedure used to obtain these uncertainties is
called expert judgement. In a formal expert judgement procedure a panel of
experts has provided quantitative information about the uncertainty in given
observables: a quantity that describes an observation concerning the
phenomenon of interest, in this paper the relation between dose and health
effects, without information or assumptions about any model describing this
phenomenon. The observables are defined in a case structure, a questionnaire
provided to all experts. ECN has contributed to the selection of the experts
for the early health effects panel, and provided assistance for drafting the
case structure for this panel. This paper describes the radiological
information provided by ECN and the analyses necessary for constructing the
case structure. The deliverables of the expert elicitation are uncertainty
distributions of the observables requested in the case structure. The results
are intended to be unbiased, i.e. it should be applicable to any model
describing the relation between dose and health effects. They will be
published by the project team in a joint publication of the NRC and the EC.
In this way the resulting uncertainty distributions are available for further
work in the joint project and available to a more general public. 2 figs., 4
refs.
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