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Title:
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Top-down estimates of European CH4 and N20 emissions based on four different inverse models
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Author(s):
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Bergamaschi, P.; Corazza, M.; Karstens, U.; Athanassiadou, M.; Thompson, R.L.; Pison, I.; Manning, A.; Bousquet, P.; Segers, A.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Janssens-Maenhout, G.; Schmidt, M.; Ramonet, M.; Meinhardt, F.; Aalto, T.; Haszpra, L.; Moncrieff, J.; Popa, M.E.; Lowry, D; Steinbacher, M.; Jordan, A.; O'Doherty, S.; Piacentino, S.; Dlugokencky, E.
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Environment & Energy Engineering
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23-2-2015
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-W--15-009
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Article (scientific)
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Number of pages:
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24
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Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (European Geosciences Union), , 2015, Vol.15, p.715-736.
Abstract:
European CH4 and N2O emissions are estimated
for 2006 and 2007 using four inverse modelling systems,
based on different global and regional Eulerian and Lagrangian
transport models. This ensemble approach is designed
to provide more realistic estimates of the overall uncertainties
in the derived emissions, which is particularly important
for verifying bottom-up emission inventories.
We use continuous observations from 10 European stations
(including 5 tall towers) for CH4 and 9 continuous stations
for N2O, complemented by additional European and
global discrete air sampling sites. The available observations
mainly constrain CH4 and N2O emissions from northwestern
and eastern Europe. The inversions are strongly
driven by the observations and the derived total emissions
of larger countries show little dependence on the emission
inventories used a priori.
Three inverse models yield 26–56% higher total CH4
emissions from north-western and eastern Europe compared
to bottom-up emissions reported to the UNFCCC, while one
model is close to the UNFCCC values. In contrast, the inverse
modelling estimates of European N2O emissions are in
general close to the UNFCCC values, with the overall range
from all models being much smaller than the UNFCCC uncertainty
range for most countries. Our analysis suggests that
the reported uncertainties for CH4 emissions might be underestimated,
while those for N2O emissions are likely overestimated.
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