ECN publication
Toepassing van simulatietechnieken in de probabilistischebreukmechanica
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ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-I--94-060 Other
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The Monte Carlo simulation is applied on a model of the fracturemechanics in order to assess the applicability of this simulation technique in the probabilistic fracture mechanics. By means of the fracture mechanics model the brittle fracture of a steel container or pipe with defects can be predicted. By means of the Monte Carlo simulation also the uncertainty regarding failures can be determined. Based on the variations in the toughness of the fracture and the defect dimensions the distribution of the chance of failure is determined. Also attention is paid to the impact of dependency between uncertain variables. Furthermore, the influence of the applied distributions of the uncertain variables and non-destructive survey on the chance of failure is analyzed. The Monte Carlo simulation results agree quite well with the results of other methods from the probabilistic fracture mechanics. If an analytic expression can be found for the chance of failure, it is possible to determine the variation of the chance of failure, next to an estimation of the chance of failure. It also appears that the dependency between the uncertain variables has a large impact on the chance of failure. It is also concluded from the simulation that the chance of failure strongly depends on the crack depth, and therefore of the distribution of the crack depth. 15 figs., 7 tabs., 12 refs.

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