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Title:
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Probabilistic cost model for analysis of offshore wind energy costs and potential
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Wind Energy
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1-5-2002
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-I--02-007
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Other
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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47
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
A computer program named OWECOP (Offshore Wind Energy Cost and Potential)has been developed by ECN in order to quantify the energy production
costs of offshore wind energy. This program couples a Geographic Information
System (GIS database) with an ExcelTM workbook.
This report describes a probabilistic analysis implemented into the
OWECOP cost model. Therefore the @RISK software package for probabilistic
analyses is implemented into the Excel workbook of OWECOP. The cost
model obtained bears the name OWECOP-Prob.
Some typical results of the OWECOP-Prob model are: probabilistic distribution
functions (PDF) for the energy yield, PDF?s for overall offshore wind
energy implementation costs and tornado diagrams showing the relative
influence of the uncertain parameters. These results are obtained by
Monte Carlo simulations.
After an introduction, chapter 2 of this report presents the deterministic
and the probabilistic input parameters of the OWECOP-Prob model. In
chapter 3 the different probabilistic distributions used are described.
In chapter 4, the integration of the probabilistic cost model into OWECOP
is presented.
An evaluation of the results is given in chapter 5 and some graphs obtained
with the model are shown.
The conclusions and recommendations are given in chapter 5.4.
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