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Title:
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Inpasbaarheid decentraal vermogen.
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1992
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--92-052
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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63
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
This study examines whether the present growth of decentralized production capacity causes dispatch problems for the Dutch public electricity production system in 2000 (phase 1): These problems become evident in diminished reliability of the national system and a sub optimal use
of production capacity from a financial, energetic and/or environmental point of view. Options for reducing output of decentralized combined heat and power plants (CHP) are examined. For the year 2015 explorations are made to look for an optimum ratio between centralized and decentralized production (phase 2). For 2000 electricity demand is based on the expectations of Sep (Cooperating Electricity Production Companies); the composition of the public electricity production facilities is based on
the Electricity Plan 1991-2000 and some additional information published by Sep. The amount of decentralized production capacity is based on the Environmental Action Plan of the energy distribution companies. From hour-to-hour simulations of the total electricity production minor dispatch problems are found for the year 2000. The most important factors influencing these problems are:
- Minimum demand in the night from saturday to sunday;
- Production pattern of city hearing units (yes or no production by night);
- Import patterns;
- Foreseeable (revision) and unforeseeable (breakdown) unavailability of production units.
Solving the dispatch problems with centralized production by reducing output of decentralized production demands output reduction for about 100 nights per year. The advantages that can be reached on financial, energetic and environmental aspects however are relatively limited (below 0.2%). The costs of eventua] extra communication and operation and maintenance are
not included in these figures. In the second phase of the study electricity demand and the composition of the public production facilities are assumed to develop according to a "business-as-usual" scenario. This implies a growth of electricity demand with 2% per year to 131 TWh in 2015 and a relative composition of the central production system more or less equal to that in 2000. In this base case dispatch problems are less than for 2000.
With four alternative production systems a sensibility analysis is conducted concerning the effects of size and composition of decentralized and centralized production capacity to central dispatch problems. Based on these variants the following conclusions are drawn:
- The problems for the centralized electricity production caused by decentralized production capacity depend on the latter’s share in total electricity supply, the type of decentralized power (CHP, wind-turbines, photo-voltaic), minimum load for central productlon units, the amount of central CHP-units producing at night and the level of base load;
- Eventual dispatch problems can be solved in a variety of ways: more flexible import pattern, heat accumulation with public CHP-units, reducing output power of CHP-units or load pattern modification.
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