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ECN publication
Title:
Energy scenarios for a changing Europe: integration versusfragmentation
 
Author(s):
Oostvoorn, F. van; Pellekaan, W.O.
 
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1995
 
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-RX--95-031 Conference Paper
 
Number of pages: Full text:
25 Download PDF  

Presented at: ETSAP Seminar Application of E3-models, Göteborg, Sweden, 8-9 mei 1993.

Abstract:
At the moment the effects of a further integration in Western Europe onthe economy and energy markets are far from clear. Obviously the degree of integration will influence the scope and effectiveness of national and European Union energy and environmental policy decisions, together with different prospects for economic growth and energy prices. In order to analyze consequences of these different impacts two 'extremely' different scenarios have been developed, one representing ongoing integration in Western Europe (IS), and another describing fragmentation of Western Europe (FS). To analyze two different socio-economic scenarios an energy demand model for Western Europe (SEEM), has been developed to project primary energy demand per country in the Industry, Services, Households, and Transport sector. In order to cover almost all primary energy demand the electricity production sector was included in the model, too. Resulting long run (2020) primary energy demand for both base-scenarios differs substantially, and is much higher in an integrating Europe, due to higher economic growth and lower energy prices. The effect of energy tax harmonization is rather limited on a European level, but is significant for some countries and fuels. CO2 emissions increase significantly in the base scenarios, and a CO2 tax of $100 per ton carbon (about 10 $/barrel) results in a decrease of CO2 emission of about 14% in 2020 relative to the reference scenario IS, which is by far too low to meet reduction targets, for example stabilization. 8 figs., 3 tabs., 9 refs.


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