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Title:
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De bijdrage van duurzame energie in Nederland tot 2020
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1-9-1999
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--99-053
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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94
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
The Dutch Government aims to increase the contribution of renewableenergy from a current share of slightly more than 1% of total energy
use to
10% by the year 2020. Several policy measures have already been implemented
in order to achieve this ambitious target. Currently, the Government
wishes
an updated insight whether the 10% target is within reach with the
existing
mix of policy instruments or not. The present analysis of the future
contribution of renewables took into account the latest developments
with
respect to technological innovation, cost reduction, fuel price developments
and liberalisation of energy markets. In this study a scenario-based
approach
is applied to analyse these questions. An existing energy scenario
was taken
for which the fossil energy price projections have been adjusted downward
in
accordance with recent insight. All renewable options have been analysed
and
for several renewable technologies new cost projections have been made
based
on learning curve analysis. In a scenario with a best estimate for
the future
cost of renewables and at a constant 15$/bbl (30 Dutch guilder per
barrel)
oil price, the share of renewables reaches 3.7% of projected total
energy use
in 2010 and 5.4% in 2020. Relatively large contributions are projected
for
wind energy, waste and biomass and import of renewable energy. A second
request of the Government was to give insight in the approximate additional
societal cost to achieve 10% renewable energy. The societal cost of
renewables contribution in the 'best guess' is estimated at 1.2 billion
Dutch
guilders in the year 2020. A mix of policy measures to reach the 10%
renewables target in 2020, mainly consisting of more financial incentives,
will result in societal cost amounting to 2.5 billion guilders in 2020.
Thus,
the additional societal cost to meet the 10% target will amount to
approximately 1.3 billion guilders in the year 2020. 114 refs.
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