ECN publication
De bijdrage van duurzame energie in Nederland tot 2020
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-9-1999
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--99-053 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
94 Download PDF  

The Dutch Government aims to increase the contribution of renewableenergy from a current share of slightly more than 1% of total energy use to 10% by the year 2020. Several policy measures have already been implemented in order to achieve this ambitious target. Currently, the Government wishes an updated insight whether the 10% target is within reach with the existing mix of policy instruments or not. The present analysis of the future contribution of renewables took into account the latest developments with respect to technological innovation, cost reduction, fuel price developments and liberalisation of energy markets. In this study a scenario-based approach is applied to analyse these questions. An existing energy scenario was taken for which the fossil energy price projections have been adjusted downward in accordance with recent insight. All renewable options have been analysed and for several renewable technologies new cost projections have been made based on learning curve analysis. In a scenario with a best estimate for the future cost of renewables and at a constant 15$/bbl (30 Dutch guilder per barrel) oil price, the share of renewables reaches 3.7% of projected total energy use in 2010 and 5.4% in 2020. Relatively large contributions are projected for wind energy, waste and biomass and import of renewable energy. A second request of the Government was to give insight in the approximate additional societal cost to achieve 10% renewable energy. The societal cost of renewables contribution in the 'best guess' is estimated at 1.2 billion Dutch guilders in the year 2020. A mix of policy measures to reach the 10% renewables target in 2020, mainly consisting of more financial incentives, will result in societal cost amounting to 2.5 billion guilders in 2020. Thus, the additional societal cost to meet the 10% target will amount to approximately 1.3 billion guilders in the year 2020. 114 refs.

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