ECN publication
Impacts of market liberalisation on the EU gas industry: the Shared Analysis project Energy Policy in Europe and Prospects to 2020 Volume No. 9
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1-10-1999
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--99-083 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
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This final report presents the results of the analyses at relevant trendsand features in the EU gas market enabling or limiting more competition. The study focuses in particular on the possible impacts of the implementation of the EU Gas Directive and subsequently of the expected effects of increasing competition and further integration of gas markets in Europe. The study is conducted in the framework of the Shared Analysis project entitled 'Economic Foundations for Energy Policy', coordinated by FhG-ISI and prepared for the European Commission Directorate General for Energy. The report contains an analysis of the recent changes in the structure of gas demand and the supply and its consequences for enhancement of competition in the EU gas market. lt discusses the role of growing gas demand, changing structure of the supply industry and access to the network. Next, the implementation of the EU Gas Directive is discussed. In order to deal with the uncertainty in the results of the implementation process, two extreme institutional scenarios for future development of the liberalisation process in the EU gas markets are formulated. Finally, the consequences of these two gas market liberalisation scenarios are analysed. Note that part of the conclusions of the expected effects of the Directive, i.e. the expected changes in gas prices and market structures, are based on a model analysis. However, it should be clear that at this stage our conclusions presented in this report are still of a tentative nature. Note also that the final report is based on an extensive collection of EU gas market data both on country and company level, which was described in the first interim report entitled 'The natural gas market in the European Union'. A second interim report was drafted with an energy policy interpretation of the analyses of data and developments over the past ten years. Furthermore, at this moment, facts, opinions and available data are rapidly changing in the beginning of the transition period and the bulk of the work was conducted in the second half of 1998. Therefore it was impossible to include all the latest details of the EU gas market in sufficient detail, particularly given the limited scope of this sub-task of the Shared Analysis. 26 refs.

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