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Title:
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Short-term output predicition OWEZ - Reporting period 2007-01-01 - 2007-06-30
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Wind Energy
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21-2-2008
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-E--08-018
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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36
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
NoordzeeWind carries out an extensive monitoring and evaluation programme (NSW-MEP) as part of the project Offshore Wind Farm Egmond aan Zee (OWEZ). Task 1.7.2 of this programme is "short-term output prediction".
This report describes for the period between 1st January 2007 and 30th June 2007:
• Day-ahead forecasts of the power output of the OWEZ, day-ahead energy prices from the APX, and settlement prices from TenneT; as stored in the NSW-MEP database maintained by ECN.
• Overviews of measured and forecasted energy, the corresponding programme imbalance plus the associated fictitious payments and fees, as well as information on exceedances and ex-tremes; also stored in the database.
• An assessment of
(i) the value of wind power forecasting and
(ii) the use of such forecasts at events like storms.
As to the value of the applied wind power forecasting for the OWEZ after six months of experience it is premature to draw conclusions because the imbalance payment primarily depends on which type of wind speed forecasts is used. If not-optimized forecasts would have been used over the six month pe-riod, the OWEZ would have been better of with the imbalance fee. If, on the other hand, the optimized forecasts would have been available as a-priori knowledge, the OWEZ would have been better of with the imbalance payments.
The main conclusion on the use of wind power forecasts at events like storms is that the predictability of exceedances and extremes is poor. As to the ability to serve as an early warning for high-speed cut-out events the information is inconclusive.
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