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ECN publication
Nationale Energie Verkenningen 1990-2015
Published by: Publication date:
ECN ECN 1992
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--92-017 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
162 Download PDF  

The National Energy Outlook 1990-2015 explores the Dutch energy future with a set of three scenarios for energy and environmental developments and two variants with regard to energy supply. Each scenario is based on a set of assumptions regarding sectoral growth and fuel prices. The results include primary energy use, demand per fuel, import and export of energy carriers, emissions of CO2, SO2 and NOx, costs of energy supply including taxes, penetration of energy technologies, investments, remaining national gas supplies and electricity tariffs. The scenarios are Balanced Growth (BG), Global Shift (GS) and European Renaissance (ER). BG is characterised by high economic growth rates, fast technological developments and a strong emphasis on free market principles. A reduction of emissions has to be achieved mainly by a high (worldwide) CO2-tax. The GS-scenario is much less optimistic: low growth rates, a lack of governmental policies concerning energy and environment and a stagnating European cooperation. In ER a fairly high economic growth is attained with current economic policies and a successful integration of European economies, including Eastern Europe. With legislation, based on strong social support, profound environmental measures are implemented. Because environmental goals as set out in the National Environmental Plan are not met in any of the scenarios, the BG-variant and the ER-variant have been set up. In the BG-variant a greater CO2-reduction is attained with a maximized CO2-free electricity production using a combination of coal gasification plants with CO2-removal and storage in empty gasfields and nuclear power plants. The NOx-emission in ER is halved in the ER-variant by implementing very clean and efficient technologies, especially in transportation. Both variants ask for a fundamental change in Dutch decision making on energy. A number of general "lessons" from the study are presented such as the long term relation between economic growth and emissions, importance of diversification in Dutch fuel use, future tariff structures for electricity, the role of the huge Dutch gasfield of Slochteren and policies with regard to the internationally oriented energy-intensive industries.

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