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Title:
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Prospects for energy technology in the Netherlands: vol. 1:evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of energy technologies undera range of long term future conditions
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1995
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--95-002
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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112
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
The SYRENE programme (SYstems integration of Renewable and End-use energytechnologies in the NEtherlands) aims to provide a contribution to the
programming of the Netherlands Agency for Energy and the Environment (NOVEM).
In this study a technology evaluation was carried out using the technology
data of technology assessments which have been performed within the SYRENE
programme. These data concern the expected future performance, costs and
technical potentials of energy technologies, extensively described elsewhere.
The technology evaluation for the energy system of the Netherlands was
executed by configuring energy systems for the time period 2000-2040 with a
cost-minimizing model of the national energy system (MARKAL). Sixty scenario
cases have been constructed in which parameters, such as energy price
projections, future policy for CO2 emission reduction and societal
development of technologies are varied. The role and the cost-effectiveness
of approximately 200 existing, improved and new energy technologies have been
analyzed for these scenario cases. It appeared that the cost-effectiveness of
many energy technologies in the future energy system is sensitive to the
assumptions for future conditions. The energy technologies have been
categorized as robust, critical or less relevant on the base of the scenario
calculations. Robust technologies play an important role in the majority of
scenario cases and they are not immediately or generally phased out with
increasing CO2 emission reductions. A second group of technologies that has
been identified are the critical technologies, playing a vital role in at
least one of the sets of cases with CO2 emission reduction of 20% or more,
or playing a role in the majority of cases with more ambitious CO2 reduction
targets. Moreover, their critical nature implies that they are difficult to
substitute. Finally, a group of technologies has been identified which seem
less relevant to play a role in the future energy system of the Netherlands.
40 figs., 20 tabs., 22 refs.
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