ECN publication
Natural gas corridors among the EU and its main suppliers: Simulation results with the dynamic GASTALE model
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 7-6-2006
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-M--06-083 Conference Paper
Number of pages: Full text:
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Presented at: 29th IAEE International Energy Conference, Potsdam, Germany, 7-10 juni 2006.

European demand for natural gas has grown and is expected to expand considerably in the next decades. This growth is partly induced by the environmental policy targets, e.g., the Kyoto pro-tocol, and the European energy market liberalisation. However this development also poses a challenge for the energy consumers in the EU and other gas importing countries with respect to the increasing dependency on gas imports and consequently also the security of gas supplies. This paper presents first briefly the business-as-usual (BAU) scenario with a focus on the re-quired gas infrastructure. The analysis focuses on interactions among demand, supply and gas transport infrastructure, pipeline and LNG transport, storage, and necessary investments in the natural gas market over the period 2005-2030. For dealing with the great uncertainties that are part of our long term future, a number of policy scenarios in addition to the BAU case are for-mulated to study the impact of demand uncertainty and delaying investment behaviour on the gas transport infrastructure (pipeline transport, LNG facilities and storage capacity) required in the long run in Europe. In addition, some of the key tradeoffs among investments in pipelines, LNG liquifaction and regasification facilities, and storage capacity are investigated. The analy-ses in this paper indicate that substantial investments in gas transport corridors are needed to provide for security of supply. Especially the pipeline connections running from East to West need to be prioritised. The future gas price largely depends upon the sufficient availability of gas from Russia, Iran, and Central Asian countries.

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