ECN publication
Drastische CO2-reductie hoe is het mogelijk : technologieen voor kostenoptimale vermindering van CO2-emissies in het Nederlandse energiesysteem ; op lange termijn
Published by: Publication date:
ECN Policy Studies 1993
ECN report number: Document type:
ECN-C--92-066 ECN publication
Number of pages: Full text:
272 Download PDF  

In order to detect cost-effective long term CO2 reduction strategies several scenarios are calculated with drastic (up to 80%) reductions of national CO2 emissions in 2030 and beyond. The energy system model used in this study (MARKAL) is used in 12 IEA countries including the United States, Japan and the European Community in ETSAP (Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme) Annex IV greenhouse gases and national energy options. Using detailed compilations of data characterising available and prospective energy technologies, and incorporating projections and assumptions about the costs and availability of fuels the model configures an optimal mix of technologies to satisfy the specified useful energy demands. Detailed data (investment costs, availability, energetic efficiency) for ca. 400 (new) energy technologies in different sectors are characterized. The model is used in a national costs minimizing mode with exogenous national maximum allowable emissions (’bubble’ concept), optimizing the energy system for the period 2000 to 2040 simultaneously in steps of 5 years each. Few institutional and market barriers are assumed, to reflect the maximum potentiaI of (new) energy technologies. On the other hand bounds are imposed on the speed of marker penetration for new energy technologies to prevent unrealistic solutions, and there are lower bounds to ensure that older technologies will hot be phased out too rapidly. The model optimizes with a 5% discount rate. Groups of energy technologies for CO2 reduction considered in this study include: Absorption refrigerator, Aerogel insulated refrigerator, Agricultural biocrops, Anaerobic waste digestion, CO2 removal hydrogen production, CO2 removal at power station, Combined heat and power, Compressed natural gas vehicles, Coated gasfilled triple glazing, Condensing gas boiler, District heating, Efficient light bulbs, Efficient office lighting, Electric heatpumps, Electric vehicles, Electricity storage, Electrolytic hydrogen production, Fuel cell power generation, Fuel cell vehicles, Gas heatpumps, Geothermal hearing, Heat recovery, Hot fill washing machine, Hydrogen stationary use, Hydrogen fuel cell ship, Hydrogen airplane, Industrial energy saving, Liquid biofuels, Mechanical vapour recompression, Nuclear power, Offshore windturbines, Seasonal heat storage, Short rotation forestry, Solar photovoltaics, Solar heating options, Thermo photovoltaic boiler, Translucent building insulation, Wood power station, Wood hearing. The scenarios are: DZ (high growth, non nuclear), DK (high growth with nuclear), GZ (low growth, non nuclear) and GK (low growth with nuclear). Exponential increasing CO2 reduction costs are observed in all scenarios. By approximation the costs double going from 20 to 40 to 60 to 80% CO2 reduction. Starting in the year 2000 a linear reduction path to achieve 80% reduction of CO2 emissions by the year 2030 and 2040 would consume 2%, 1.4%, 0.9% or 0.7% of the Netherlands GNP during the policy period 2000-2040 in the scenarios DZ, DK, GZ and GK respectively. The achievement of drastic CO2 reduction at relatively low costs relies to a large extend on the successful development and implementation of the above mentioned new energy technologies.

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