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Title:
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Energy scenarios for a changing Europe: integration versus fragmentation
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Author(s):
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Published by:
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Publication date:
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ECN
Policy Studies
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1995
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ECN report number:
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Document type:
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ECN-C--95-075
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ECN publication
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Number of pages:
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Full text:
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79
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Download PDF
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Abstract:
At the moment the effects of a further integration in Western Europe onthe economy and energy markets are far from clear. Obviously the degree of
integration will influence the scope and effectiveness of national and
European Union energy and environmental policy decisions, together with
different prospects for economic growth and energy prices. In order to
analyze consequences of these different impacts two 'extremely' different
scenarios have been developed, one representing ongoing integration in
Western Europe (IS), and another describing fragmentation of Western Europe
(FS). To analyze two different socio-economic scenarios an energy demand
model for Western Europe (SEEM), has been developed to project primary energy demand per country in the Industry, Services, Households, and Transport sector. In order to cover almost all primary energy demand the electricity production sector was included in the model, too. Resulting long run (2020) primary energy demand for both base-scenarios differs substantially, and is much higher in an integrating Europe, due to higher economic growth and lower energy prices. The effect of energy tax harmonization is rather limited on a European level, but is significant for some countries and fuels. CO2 emissions increase significantly in the base scenarios, and a CO2 tax of $100 per ton carbon (about 10 $/barrel) results in a decrease of CO2 emission of about 14% in 2020 relative to the reference scenario IS, which is
by far too low to meet reduction targets, for example stabilization. 25
figs., 12 tabs., 14 refs., 1 appendix
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